Growth in agriculture and construction sectors anticipated

by Linda Straker

• Banana production declined by 45.8% at end of first quarter in 2023
• Mace and Fish Production estimated to increase
• Foreign investment deepens in areas such as tourism and agro-processing

The Government said a slight decline is expected in the agricultural sector in 2023. In the construction sector, the value of imported construction materials declined by 19.1% at the end of the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Despite these challenges, growth is expected for these sectors in 2023.

“Based on the limited data received from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) and estimates by the Ministry of Finance, banana production declined by 45.8% at the end of the first quarter in 2023 compared to the first quarter in 2022,” said the 2023 mid-year review recently presented in the Houses of Parliament.

The report states that an estimated decline of 5.5% is expected for nutmeg production, 3.5% for cocoa and 10.0% for Grenada Marketing and National Importing Board (MNIB) purchases of other crops. “Given that the MNIB is undergoing restructuring, MNIB purchases is likely to be an inaccurate proxy for production of “Other Crops” for the rest of 2023. Mace and Fish Production is estimated to increase by 10.3% and 1.0% respectively at the end of the first quarter in 2023 compared to the previous year.” The report outlines the methodology used by the Ministry of Finance.

“Data remains a challenge for the agriculture sector, and as such, estimates are used where data gaps exist. However, efforts are being made to find more reliable and accurate methodologies. CSO aims to gather data from supermarkets and hotels to compensate for the reduced availability of data from the MNIB,” explained the footnote in the report.

In the construction sector, the report said that the value of imported construction materials declined by 19.1% by the end of the first quarter in 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, but the data used was also unofficial.

“This was largely the result of a drop in prices of construction materials since the quantity of imported materials increased by 10.8%. Retail sales of building materials also increased by 4.3% in value, pointing to the notable expansion of the construction sector,” explained the report.

“Anecdotally, growth in the construction sector can be surmised by the number and size of ongoing public and private investment projects. Several major public and private sector projects are ongoing, including the Molinere Landslip Rehabilitation Project, the Agricultural Feeder Roads, the St John’s River Flood Mitigation Project (Phase II), the Beach House Project, and the Six Senses Hotel Development,” according to the report.

“It is anticipated that the current growth trajectory in this sector will persist as the appetite for foreign investment deepens in areas such as tourism and agro-processing. That said, supply chain disruptions, high shipping costs, and shortage of skilled labour supply can challenge the sector’s productive capacity. Notwithstanding, growth is estimated for the rest of 2023, and the medium-term outlook remains positive,” said the report.