FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND GULF OF MEXICO AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10–20°N AND 45–65°W
Tropical wave: A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near 58°W/59°W from 20°N southward into Guyana, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 10°N to 14°N between 55°W and 68°W, with additional convection over much of Venezuela. Model guidance indicates instability, cloudiness, and shower activity will continue throughout most of today. The Met Office continues to monitor this system.
Tropical Storm Beryl: At 8 am, the centre of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.8 °North, longitude 46.8 °West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Sunday, with additional strengthening expected after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The Met Office continues to monitor this system.
Disturbance 1: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. This system has a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Disturbance 2: An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The next update will be issued at 2 pm.
Trisha Miller, Duty Forecaster
