Grenada is currently under a tropical storm watch. At 11 am, the centre of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 12.3° North, longitude 57.7° West, or about 222 miles east-northeast of Grenada.
Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the centre of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Model guidance currently shows the centre of Dorian passing just north of St Vincent (latitude 13.9° North, longitude 61.4° West) at 8 am tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern Windward Islands on Tuesday. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles from the centre.
Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from Martinique to St Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian’s convective and outflow pattern have continued to improve, which indicates Dorian is strengthening. Dorian is expected to continue moving around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday, Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.
The intensity forecast is less straightforward than the track forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry mid-level air (Saharan Air Layer) surrounding and occasionally being pumped into Dorian’s inner-core region, would favour at least steady strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of at least 29°C, and the small overall circulation and inner core wind field. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall, only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Windward Islands.
Dorian is expected to bring showers and thundershowers to the state of Grenada (mainly the northern parts) by Monday night into Tuesday. As such, the Met Office has issued a low chance of flooding for the northern part of the state by Tuesday morning. Citizens and all concerned are advised to closely follow the directions and advice of the National Disaster Management Agency (NaDMa) at this time.
