FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND GULF OF MEXICO AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10–20°N AND 45–65°W
Tropical wave: A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 57°W from 18°N southward into Suriname and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08°N to 12°N between 54°W and Trinidad/Tobago. Model guidance indicates a potential for increased instability, cloudiness, and shower activity on Saturday ahead of this wave’s axis. The Met Office continues to monitor this system.
Tropical Storm Beryl: At 11 pm, the centre of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.3 °North, longitude 43.6 °West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 18 mph. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The Met Office continues to monitor this system.
Disturbance 1: A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce widespread but disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. This system has a medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Disturbance 2: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganised showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The next update will be issued at 8 am.
Trisha Miller, Duty Forecaster
