by Curlan Campbell
- “Grenada Goes” — a future of declining population and a weak economy struggling to cope with climate change
- “Grenada Grows” — a future in which in spite of the impacts of climate change Grenada manages to cope, and
- “Grenada Greens” — a future in which people and environment are materially better off
In 2050, what could be the possible state of biodiversity and ecosystems in Grenada? Dr Adrian Cashman, the Coordinating Lead Author of the final chapter in the Grenada National Ecosystems Assessment report, outlines 3 contrasting scenarios that involve varying combinations of the 2 primary factors — climate change and economic development.
The scenarios are:
- “Grenada Goes” — a future of declining population and a weak economy struggling to cope with climate change
- “Grenada Grows” — a future in which in spite of the impacts of climate change Grenada manages to cope, and
- “Grenada Greens” — a future in which people and environment are materially better off
Dr Cashman was among several lead scientists, researchers, and consultants who contributed to the final document presented to the government of Grenada on 26 October 2023. The situations he described range from positive to less favourable outcomes.
He said the more pessimistic scenario “Grenada Goes,” saw the negative effects that habitat destruction, climate change, overharvesting, ocean acidification, and pollution have had on the country’s ecosystems. He explained that in this low-growth scenario with fewer job opportunities, there could expect to be increased environmental pressures, land conversion to subsistence farming, and greater use of unsustainable farming practices due to climate change. Coastal and marine ecosystems would have been stressed beyond their tipping point.
In this scenario temperature rises accompanied by prolonged dry spells are expected to increase the frequency of wildfires. This, in turn, will exert more pressure on land use and create conditions that are favorable for the spread of pests and diseases. Dr Cashman predicts that this will negatively impact biodiversity and ecosystems. “This too would have a negative effect on water availability. There would not be fiscal resources available to counter the negative effects of climate change on the economy and environment and at the same time provide support underpinning sustainable practices. We also thought it likely that there would be similar effects across economic sectors. Worryingly, we also thought that this could trigger increases in social instability.”
The Grenada National Ecosystem Assessment Report 2023 was developed with support from the National Ecosystem Assessment Initiative (NEA) hosted by UNEP-WCMC, in partnership with UNDP, UNESCO, and the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Network (BES-Net). Financial support for the NEA Initiative is provided by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment. The Caribbean Natural Resources Institute (CANARI) implemented this project on behalf of the Grenada Government. The project provided tools, data, and knowledge to integrate the value of biodiversity and ecosystem services into policymaking. This was done in order to help the country build resilience to significant changes in global, regional, and local environments.
Dr Cashman stated that the intensifying climate change impacts and poor economic prospects will create significant economic burdens for Grenadian society and the environment. It is also predicted that water availability will decrease due to changes in rainfall patterns, degraded ecosystems, increased wildfires, changes in forest ecology, and land conversion. This reduction in water availability will have numerous negative effects on human health, social well-being, and economic prospects, and would disproportionately impact the less advantaged members of society. “The loss of biodiversity and the increase in invasive pests and diseases would reduce ecosystem vitality and its ability to support food production. For example, reduced pollination would have negative effects on plants forests and food production and could lead to people having to change their dietary choices, as those on lower incomes may not be able to afford more expensive food imports and may have access to a more limited range of local produce,” he added.
Grenada’s future tourism in 2050
The report did not directly consider the environmental impact of the newly built hotels. Instead, it focused on potential changes in the tourism sector by 2050. Dr Cashman presented 2 contrasting visions of Grenada’s future tourism in 2050 titled “Grenada Goes” and “Grenada Greens.”
Grenada Goes
The first scenario predicted that Grenada’s tourism industry would continue to rely on the traditional sun-sand-sea model, but this approach would face increasing threats from the long-term impacts of climate change. However, the country would continue to allow the construction of more tourist accommodations on coastal areas in an effort to attract a greater share of the tourism market. However, the increasing frequency of hurricanes, storm surges, sea level rise, and the proliferation of Sargassum seaweed would negatively affect the beachfront properties. As a solution, it was predicted that new operators would try to diversify to offer a range of non beach-related attractions to compensate for the loss of beaches. Due to an increase in crime, there would be concerns about tourist security, resulting in certain coastal areas becoming enclaves exclusively dedicated to tourists and tourism. Moreover, the prediction indicated that not all tourism development would be concentrated along the coast, as inland destinations and dual destination offerings like Carriacou were also projected to gain popularity.
Despite these efforts, it was anticipated that tourism demand would mostly remain stable and dependent on seasonal cycles. The increasing cost of living in Europe was projected to lead to a decline in the European tourist market, with the majority of visitors now coming from North America. Although the tourism developments were expected to create employment opportunities and support services, these were likely to be low-skilled and low-paying jobs. Alongside the growth in traditional tourism, accommodations offering the Airbnb model started to take off, offering a choice of types of accommodation, including high-end bespoke offerings. The ecotourism subsector remains small in comparison to the mainstream hotel and tourism product, striving to set itself apart by offering authentic experiences. Cruise ship tourism has continued, though repeated health issues have damped demand from time to time. Yacht-based tourism has continued to be popular within its niche market. New operators have sought to expand the sector through tie-ins with hotels and other tourism operators. Yacht tourism has benefitted Carriacou somewhat, but the main focus is along the southern coast of Grenada.
Grenada Greens
The second scenario predicts that Grenada’s tourism industry has moved away from relying solely on sun-sand-sea model and traditional tourist markets of Europe and North America. Instead, it has expanded to attract visitors from Africa, South America and further afield, allowing it to reduce the effects of seasonal cycles and maintain consistent demand. The tourism offerings now include a strong focus on ecotourism and nature-based activities, benefiting from the debt-for-nature swap programme and the establishment of Land and Marine Protected Areas to support biodiversity. In addition to ecotourism, there is a focus on health and wellness/medical tourism, Orange (arts, events, culture) tourism, and a growth in blended tourism, which allows visitors to combine different options within a single wrapper. To emphasise sustainability and resilience, much of the old tourism accommodation stock has been gradually replaced or upgraded with low-impact developments reducing their environmental footprint. This process is ongoing as higher sustainability standards are applied and audited in 2050.
While cruise ship tourism has continued, its slow growth due to health concerns has been surpassed by the growth in yacht tourism. Carriacou has become the yachting hub for the southern Caribbean with the development of marina facilities in Tyrell Bay and associated infrastructure around Argyle in the 2030s, providing a significant boost to that island’s economy.
The increase in tourism numbers and diversified offerings, along with policies supporting local ownership, has not only increased the number of people and businesses offering services, but has also increased local ownership and participation in the sector. Improved skills, training, and technological developments have led to a decrease in the number of low-skilled jobs and an increase in incomes. Services to the sector have seen a marked increase that revolves around the circular economy approach, reducing waste generation and creating new opportunities. Technological developments allow for smart monitoring, tracking, and reporting of materials and service flows using artificial intelligence (AI) to optimise performance and enhance visitor experience.
In his final assessment, Dr Cashman emphasised the crucial role of education in preparing the future generation, and highlighted the significance of investing in various educational opportunities. He also stressed the importance of increasing renewable energy and reducing energy costs to stimulate economic growth. Additionally, he recommended proactive management of physical development to enhance access to services and lower service provision costs whilst greening the urban environment as a climate adaptation measure. Dr Cashman, coming from a water resource background, advocated for enhancing water use efficiency to alleviate pressure on natural resources. He also identified potential for growth in the Blue Economy and suggested diversification into new sectors.
