by Linda Straker
- PAHO said there was no undetermined variant among samples
- 9 samples submitted confirmed Grenada is affected by Delta variant
- 50% of population anticipated to be infected by Covid-19 in coming 2 weeks
The Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) has dispelled information that an “undetermined” Covid-19 variant was identified in samples sent from Grenada since the island started experiencing increasing cases from mid-August.
On 17 August 2021, the island had only 5 local active cases. However, as of 16 September, there are 2,299 local active cases with the overall number of cases for the 4-week period standing at 3,262. Health authorities have declared community spread of the virus in Grenada. There have been 45 Covid-19 related deaths in the same period with 910 persons declared as medically recovered.
In a recent news conference, Health Minister Nickolas Steele said that from observation, health authorities believe that it is the Delta variant of the virus that is infecting Grenadians. “This Delta Variant is literally a brand-new virus because of its level of infection, it is unforgivable,” he said.
Earlier in the week, a social media report began circulating that some samples in a batch sent to the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA) were undetermined and that they will need further sequencing and analysis.
However, on Friday, 17 September 2021 official correspondence from PAHO’s Communications Department said that there was no undetermined variant among the samples. “Our specialists have confirmed with the laboratory involved that a result from the samples in Grenada could not be determined due to their low quality and not due to an undetermined variant.” The correspondence further explained, “In a context of complex and long logistics, some samples do not reach the reference lab in perfect state.”
9 of the 13 samples submitted confirmed that Grenada is indeed affected by the Delta variant.
Besides the Delta variant, Grenada also has cases of Alpha and Gamma variants. Acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Shawn Charles has described the ongoing outbreak as the island’s “first real wave” of the virus. There are no projections as to when it will peak and when there will be a flattening of the curve.
In the news conference on Tuesday, Dr Charles said it is anticipated that 50% of the 110,000 population will be infected by Covid-19 in the coming 2 weeks.
On the basis lockdowns globally have been used to flatten the curve in order to allow the health systems to cope. The lockdowns extend the impact of the virus, by having people infected more slowly and over a longer period of time. Grenada does not have a health system which can cope with ANY outbreak, and so the need to flatten the curve becomes moot. Far better to let the virus run its course and get the immunity rate up, either by infection or vaccination, as quickly as possible. The same way to was done for Zika and Chikungunya.
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2021-08/pope-francis-appeal-covid-19-vaccines-act-of-love.html
That’s official Vatican news. Listen to the Pope. God watchin you.
Spread the news that ivermevtin, zinc ,vitamin c , steam, hot drinks with ginger, lime lemon works .we dont need or want your injection its yours you take it.n
Get a grip of reality. Lol
You’re scared of an injection, and so you won’t do what it takes to prevent more deaths and suffering in your country. Instead, you promote a drug meant for animals rather than a vaccine formulated to be safe and effective for humans. Shame on you.
Why is my comment “waiting for moderation” again? What is wrong with it?
That’s when you say something they don’t agree with.
Don’t take it personally. It’s standard procedure that applies to all comments.
Dearest grenadines from me to you I am with you all. Please go and get yourselfs the vaccine now.
Please remember what damage the the DELTA VARIES did to India. Do not let this happen to you all please I pray.
With love as one grenadine to anothers
Please don’t ignore those messages and act now.
It is worrying seeing sight of refrigerated lorry in grenada planing storage for bodies. That just reminded me of new York USA last year.
Please do the right thing and save lives now by getting yourself vaccine immediately.
With love to all of my fellow grenadines xxxxxxxxx
Dr. Charles is being disingenuous, or he is being poorly advised.
I agree that there is no way of determining when it will peak, but there are things we could be doing NOW to determine how high that peak would be when it does arrive. For example, a snap lockdown to arrest community spread 3 weeks ago could have depressed the peak very quickly and saved us the economic pain we stand to bear in the near future.We can still take action at a state level to address this!
With all respect for Dr. Charles, he is clearly out of his depth if he thinks that by leaving the virus to rip through the society, the peak would be flattened. Is this the best we could do? Wait until it infects everyone?
Why are we not doing what every other country HAD to do in this situation?
The UK has tried snap lockdowns lasting weeks & months, causing mass unemployment & only a temporary slowdown in the spread of the virus. As I said before even if we had a total lockdown, no movement from anyone for three weeks, all we would create is economic ruin, devastation to our health from all the dead bodies & garbage not being collected due to the total lockdown & then return of Covid after the lockdown. Act your age not your shoe size!
How do you know Dr. Charles hasn’t recommended a lockdown to the government? You do realize that Dr. Charles’ power is not absolute, right? You do realize that the P.M. get’s the final say, right?
I don’t know what advice he gave and I never suggested his power is absolute. But if he is the government’s lead on then response, he should be the one determining the best course of action, and would be the first person I direct my questions to – the P.M is not an expert in epidemiology, so one would think he will listen to his appointed experts.
Technically, are you suggesting that Dr. Charles is being disingenuous! I.e. tells the public one thing but knows or thinks something totally different?
The question still remains…why are we not doing what everyone else had to do to curb the spread? Who are we going to hold accountable?
Every day the situation is worsening…
It is anticipated that 50% of the 110,000 population will be infected by Covid-19 in the coming 2 weeks.
Impossible for this to be true In my humble opinion
Not possible? 80% not vaccinated, anything is possible.
Last month, the CDC estimated the R-naught for Delta at 8.5 (this is how transmissible it is…seasonal flu is 2 and the original COVID variant is 3).
Oxford’s “Our World in Numbers” estimates that Grenada’s COVID reproduction rate is between 2x and 3x the World’s reproduction rate of 1 since 31 August.
Grenada is roughly half as vaccinated as the rest of the world.
Given Grenada’s inability to lockdown, high use of public transportation, lack of asymptotic testing, and density of housing (including multigenerational housing), we have a perfect storm for a virus like this spread rapidly.
So, based on 2,306 cases currently reported, at a reproductive rate of 3, we could reasonably expect 6,918 cases in a week and 21K cases in two weeks.
But we also know the 2,306 confirmed cases is also a low number because we are not testing asymptomatic cases or people that refuse to identify themselves. Let’s say the real number of cases is 4,612 (double the official number). That would lead to to 42K cases in two weeks. Depending on your total population number, this is starting to get in the range of 50% of the population.
Is this a reasonable assumption that the real number of cases may be twice the official number? Last month the Journal of Nature published an article about Delta with the scary finding that people who are asymptomatic can shed the virus two days before they begin to feel symptoms. So, in the absence of strict social distancing and mask wearing, combined with limited asymptomatic testing (and testing in general)…plus the high transmission rate of this variant and low overall vaccination rate, I would say at least double the number of confirmed cases seems reasonable assumption, meaning 50% infected in two weeks seems quite possible.
TLDR – the 50% of the population infected in the next two weeks passes the sniff when modelled against the global experience with Delta…modelling the PAHO is much more skilled at than we are. Even though it’s sometimes hard to believe, we have to start trusting the science instead of our gut reactions or opinions.
I was thinking the same thing impossible to know that 50% of the population will be infected in two weeks.
If this is not a call to get vaccinated what the FCUK is? Projected 50% of the population infected within two weeks. Are you crazy not to get vaccinated or what?
Truth.