FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND GULF OF MEXICO AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20°N AND 45 – 65°W
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally favourable for further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70%. * Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
This system poses no direct threat to the State of Grenada.
- Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms east of the centre. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a short-lived tropical depression could form in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. After that time, additional development is not anticipated since upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavourable. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50%. * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50%.
This system poses no direct threat to the State of Grenada.
- East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organised since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of its development, this system is expected to generate showery activity and thunderstorms over the State of Grenada over the weekend. *Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%. * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%.
The Met Office has maintained the warning for a high chance of flash flooding and landslides for Saturday afternoon to Sunday, and a marine advisory remains in effect!
- Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50%. This system poses no direct threat to the State of Grenada.
The Meteorological Office will continue to monitor these systems.
The next update will be issued at 8 pm.
 Andre Charles
 Duty Forecaster